Updating beliefs about variables given new information on how those variables relate

Bayesian techniques specify how to update beliefs about a variable given information on that variable or related variables. In many cases, statistical analyses also provide information about the relationship between variables, but the Borel Paradox prohibits many natural ways of updating beliefs conditioned on information about a relationship. This paper presents a method by which beliefs can be updated without violating the Borel Paradox under certain circumstances. We apply our approach to relationships specified by a statistical model (i.e., regression), and relationships described by statistical simulation. 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.